Well I did so well in last weeks games, NOT, I thought I would try it again. Actually considering the week it was I didn't do that bad. But here we go again.
The reason I put more thought into it last week then times before is I was looking at the weeks ahead, and saw that last week sytarted a 3 week timeframe that would pretty much either determine most of the playoff teams it not all. So many top matchups, and this and next week they are happening again, and I feel by Monday 20th, we should know at least 3 of the 4 teams in.
So lets get to it
Auburn VS Miss St, #2 vs #3. Miss St just had the best 2 game stretch in their history, and are now ranked higher than ever, If the Bulldogs win this they are put in the drivers seat for the SEC west, though they still have to go to Ole Miss and Bama, those games are towards the end of season, and if Ms St goes into those games still undefeated, they would be favored. Auburn right now is the favorite, but have a brutal 5 game stretch. That being said, Auburn will win this, Ms states defense showed they have some flaws over the past two weeks even though they beat good teams. Auburn's. though has lived up to expectations, and will continue to. Tigers beat the dogs and cover the 2 point spread. 32-24
Oregon Vs Ucla.
This should be a battle of 2 undefeated teams, but they both fell last week to lesser teams, looking forward? Maybe, but also having some flaws exposed. They both still have a shot at the playoffs though, but need to win out. Ucla though the loss was to an unranked team has better shot. They already beat Arizona state and have the other teams left on the schedule they need to lose, to make it to championship. Oregon though with the loss the Zona, has to win out and hope Zona loses twice. UCLA is also the better team. Oregon is favored on the road, but that is just silly. Their offensive line is a joke. and UCLA will expose that. Bet on the Bruins, UCLA wins in convincing fashion. 45-35
Baylor Vs TCU.
If I say we have a unbeaten match up top 10 in the big 12 this late in the season, you would not have guessed Baylor VS TCU, but it has happened. TCU stunned the country last week by beating the Sooners, and Baylor struggled to win VS a weak Longhorn team. Baylor is Home and favored by 7, meaning Vegas thinks the frogs are for real. Baylor has not played any real yet. I do feel this is a real test, but they will pass it, barely. TCU will cover the +7 so bet on them, but Bears win a close one,
41-38
Ole Miss, VS A&M
Rebels finally get that Bama monkey off their back, and now get to go to Kyle Field. To play an Aggie team that kinda got embarrassed in Starkville last week. Aggies are only a 2.5 fav at home, asking for people to bet on Ole Miss, meaning the Aggies will really win. Bama last week was overrated at #3, so Ole miss has not really had to play anyone else real yet. They are good, but not yet good enough to go undefeated in the SEC, and this is first loss. Aggies win at home 45-34
Georgia Vs Missouri
Winner has road to SEC title game in front of them. And the Dogs have lost their best player. Tough break cause they should have won this, but now won't. Missouri's loss to Indiana was one of those WTH flukes, and they are coming off a bye week. They will be fresher, Hungrier and without Gurely to watch for, ready for a kill. How Georgia is favored I have no clue. Mizz wins 38-32
Alabama Vs Arkansas
Bama is overrated and it showed last week. They do not have the depth they are used to having and no longer can pound you into submission. Arkansas is home and hungry for a real SEC win, and I think they can pull off the upset, especially coming off a bye week, and Bama dealing with some injuries on the offensive line. Bama is favored by 8, so bet the hogs, and I am even calling for the out right win. 35-31
IN other games that matter, Irish win and Noles win setting up another top 5 undefeated match up next week, Oklahoma takes out frustration of TCU loss out on Texas, Zona beats USC to stay in Pac 12 drivers seat, and
Lets hope I get better at this.
Friday, October 10, 2014
Thursday, October 9, 2014
Clayton Kershaw, great, yes but we have seen better more than once in my generation.
So much talk in baseball these past couple months has been how great Kershaw has been, and rightfully so. But so many people, baseball "experts" even are calling what Kershaw has done over past 4 years as greatest pitching stretch in decades!. Really, these people have such sort memories.
He has been great, yes check out these stats
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kershcl01.shtml after winning the CY this year it will be 3 in four years, the one year didn't win was 2nd. But this has been done not too long ago.
Pedro Martinez, remember him had a 4 year stretch just as good, actually even better. 97-2000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/martipe02.shtml Same awards, 3 CY and one 2nd place finish. But look closely. Pedro had more wins, better ERA, more strike outs by far, with about same walk, and more complete games.
Randy Johnson 2000-2003. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/johnsra05.shtml
4 CY awards. and no one was even a close 2nd. even more wins and strike outs. and look at those abscomplete games. and do not try to say that closers are used more now, cause the league leader for saves had an average of 7 more a year in the late 90's and early 2000's than last couple years.
Greg Maddux, http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/maddugr01.shtml
92-95, 4 Cy awards, very similar wins, less SOs but less walks better ERA, and more complete games,
Now lets add in the biggest difference between Kershaw VS the other 3. Pedro, Maddux and Randy pitched in the steroid era, the league averages for offense where so much higher, so the separation between what they did compared to the rest of the league and what Kershaw is doing compared to the league, not even close. Hell people are now talking about lowering the mound to help out the offense, saying the lack of offense is hurting the game now. Look at the WAR for all 4 as well Kershaw is easily the lowest.
O and do not forget the Post season records. Randy 5-1 in 2001 on way to WS MVP, though was a rough 7-9 lifetime. Pedro was a great 16-5 in postseason. Kershaw well is 1-5 so far, including two huge choke performances this year. Maddux was under 500.
So yes Kershaw is great. He is the best in the game right now, but lets hold off of crowning him anything other than that. He has about 10 more years of consistent performance to even sniff the jock straps of these three and about a few others over past 20 years.
He has been great, yes check out these stats
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kershcl01.shtml after winning the CY this year it will be 3 in four years, the one year didn't win was 2nd. But this has been done not too long ago.
Pedro Martinez, remember him had a 4 year stretch just as good, actually even better. 97-2000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/martipe02.shtml Same awards, 3 CY and one 2nd place finish. But look closely. Pedro had more wins, better ERA, more strike outs by far, with about same walk, and more complete games.
Randy Johnson 2000-2003. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/johnsra05.shtml
4 CY awards. and no one was even a close 2nd. even more wins and strike outs. and look at those abscomplete games. and do not try to say that closers are used more now, cause the league leader for saves had an average of 7 more a year in the late 90's and early 2000's than last couple years.
Greg Maddux, http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/maddugr01.shtml
92-95, 4 Cy awards, very similar wins, less SOs but less walks better ERA, and more complete games,
Now lets add in the biggest difference between Kershaw VS the other 3. Pedro, Maddux and Randy pitched in the steroid era, the league averages for offense where so much higher, so the separation between what they did compared to the rest of the league and what Kershaw is doing compared to the league, not even close. Hell people are now talking about lowering the mound to help out the offense, saying the lack of offense is hurting the game now. Look at the WAR for all 4 as well Kershaw is easily the lowest.
O and do not forget the Post season records. Randy 5-1 in 2001 on way to WS MVP, though was a rough 7-9 lifetime. Pedro was a great 16-5 in postseason. Kershaw well is 1-5 so far, including two huge choke performances this year. Maddux was under 500.
So yes Kershaw is great. He is the best in the game right now, but lets hold off of crowning him anything other than that. He has about 10 more years of consistent performance to even sniff the jock straps of these three and about a few others over past 20 years.
Wednesday, October 1, 2014
My footaball weekend analysis
Huge weekend in college football, as teams get into the heart of their conference schedules. many team with lose this weekend will take themselves out of current discussions for a playoff shot. Gonna give my take on some of the games.
I am gonna start with some huge games in the SEC, as they easily have the best conference in NCAA and the west side is BRUTAL. They will do some major beating on each other, if any of those teams finish regular season unbeaten will be a miracle. If the playoffs where 8 teams I would bet that 4 SEC teams would deserve to end up in them, but with only 4 spots, 2 is possible but not likely, as I said they will beat each other up and 2 loses will be common.
Texas A&M Vs Mississippi St.
Bulldogs trying to put their names into real discussion for SEC title hunt. Their win VS LSU 2 weeks ago was huge, and they get a bye afterwards to prepare for one of the the best offenses in the nation. If they win this and then somehow beat Auburn next week, that will vault them into top 4 status for sure. If the Aggies can go into Starkville and win this, it will get people back talking they are for real. And for the first time into real title discussion. Though with their schedule left, 6 of 7 teams in top 25 and they go on road VS both teams in the state of Alabama, I see no way they don't lose 2 games to knock them out of playoff contention. This year is not their year, next year however! People kinda have backed off them with a poor performance VS Arkansas, a team that is actually better then many teams ranked, cause they had played 2 top 10 teams already and played them both tough. There is no way I would bet this game. I can see it going either way, But since I am putting myself out there and writing about it, I will say the Aggies pull out a close nail biter, due to winning the turnover battle. Kenny Hill must play much better than he did last week though.
Aggies 38-34
Alabama VS Ole Miss.
The Rebels are in same situation as Bulldogs here, started off the year very well, but now have to beat the elite teams in the conference to prove they are more than just spoilers and are real contenders. 4 of their next 5 games are vs top 15 teams. and if they where to go 4-1 in those 5 games it would keep them in the title hunt. as long as no other team in the SEC west goes unbeaten. That being said I don't think they are ready for that type of run, but they will be playing spoiler to someone. Will it be Bama? They get them at home and the Tide have really not looked as dominate as they have in the past. To reliant on Cooper in the pass game, though he is a great one to rely on, so this could be the year. I am gonna say they play spoiler yet again, just not to Bama. Their defense is good, and should keep Cooper in the pass game in check, but Alabama will run the ball well enough to keep the score in their favor. I would bet on Ole Miss to cover with the spread being -7.
Crimson Tide 27-24
Auburn VS LSU
LSU has to win out to keep themselves in the hunt for the Playoff. The loss to Miss St hurt them bad, but they do have a Schedule left in their favor. They get the Alabama schools and Ole Miss at home. Auburn are some peoples favorite right now, coming off the close loss in last years title game and a QB that is a Heisman hopeful. They really have not played anyone real yet, Kansas St is decent, but not title contenders. I do not think they are as good as last year, and last year they had fate on their side. Auburn will lose at least 2 of their next 6, I could actually see them losing 4. This one included. LSU is not a playoff team and though they could win this one they won't, but being a 7.5 underdog, I would bet them for a backdoor cover.
Aubun 31-27
Oklahoma VS TCU
Oklahoma is my biggest shoe in for the playoff. TCU is the only ranked team they go on the road to play, and TCU has not played anyone real yet, so who knows what they are. I do know they are not title contenders though. That being said, the Big 12 will come down to the Baylor VS OK game, but that's later. This current game is a match up of top 25 unbeaten teams though, so worth mentioning.
Sooners win pretty easy 38-21
Stanford VS Notre Dame
Is Notre Dame for real this year??? I say yes, they are better than two years ago when they got creamed in the title game. They are deeper and will not be pounded into submission like they did then. This is one of only 3 ranked teams they will play and I am not sure USC will be when they play. That being said, If the Irish can win this the game, then the one in two weeks VS Florida State will be a playoff game. Stanford's lose to USC puts them in win out for playoff situation, but if they do win out, I do think it would put them into the playoffs. That being said they will not do it this year. QB athleticism is the key in this game and that edge goes to ND.
Irish 24-20
Oregon VS Arizona
Both teams are 4-0 but only the Ducks have real title hopes. Their schedule actually plays out in which their next 5 games will determine their playoff shot. UCLA and then Stanford 3 weeks later. After disposing of the wannabe Cats this week those two games will be only thing in the way to an unbeaten season. Hopefully the are not looking to next week VS the Bruins and forget to play this week.
Ducks win but Cats cover the 24 point spread. 51-31
Nebraska VS Michigan St
These are the only two teams in Big 10 who have a shot at the playoff. Wisconsin maybe, but they would need to win out and hope both the for both the Huskers and Spartens to lose after this weeks match up. But the winner of this game will control their own destiny. Whoever wins, must win out though and win conference title game, then playoff bound. I actually have not seen Nebraska play this year and really do not know them. That being said, they are on road and Vegas has them as 7 point dogs.
Spartens win 31-27
UCLA VS Utah
Have to throw this game in there. UCLA is for real. and this conference is is right behind the SEC in power. UCLA has Oregon up after this, so again hopefully they are not looking ahead. Utah is just the unranked team to come into Pasadena and ruin the season. That being said it will not happen.
Bruins win and cover the 13, 42-20
In other games. BYU could go undefeated this year and throw a huge wrench into a BIG 5 schools hopes for a playoff appearance. They will win. Baylor crushes TX. Maryland upsets Ohio state in my upset special.
If I do not suck with these predictions maybe will do it again.
I am gonna start with some huge games in the SEC, as they easily have the best conference in NCAA and the west side is BRUTAL. They will do some major beating on each other, if any of those teams finish regular season unbeaten will be a miracle. If the playoffs where 8 teams I would bet that 4 SEC teams would deserve to end up in them, but with only 4 spots, 2 is possible but not likely, as I said they will beat each other up and 2 loses will be common.
Texas A&M Vs Mississippi St.
Bulldogs trying to put their names into real discussion for SEC title hunt. Their win VS LSU 2 weeks ago was huge, and they get a bye afterwards to prepare for one of the the best offenses in the nation. If they win this and then somehow beat Auburn next week, that will vault them into top 4 status for sure. If the Aggies can go into Starkville and win this, it will get people back talking they are for real. And for the first time into real title discussion. Though with their schedule left, 6 of 7 teams in top 25 and they go on road VS both teams in the state of Alabama, I see no way they don't lose 2 games to knock them out of playoff contention. This year is not their year, next year however! People kinda have backed off them with a poor performance VS Arkansas, a team that is actually better then many teams ranked, cause they had played 2 top 10 teams already and played them both tough. There is no way I would bet this game. I can see it going either way, But since I am putting myself out there and writing about it, I will say the Aggies pull out a close nail biter, due to winning the turnover battle. Kenny Hill must play much better than he did last week though.
Aggies 38-34
Alabama VS Ole Miss.
The Rebels are in same situation as Bulldogs here, started off the year very well, but now have to beat the elite teams in the conference to prove they are more than just spoilers and are real contenders. 4 of their next 5 games are vs top 15 teams. and if they where to go 4-1 in those 5 games it would keep them in the title hunt. as long as no other team in the SEC west goes unbeaten. That being said I don't think they are ready for that type of run, but they will be playing spoiler to someone. Will it be Bama? They get them at home and the Tide have really not looked as dominate as they have in the past. To reliant on Cooper in the pass game, though he is a great one to rely on, so this could be the year. I am gonna say they play spoiler yet again, just not to Bama. Their defense is good, and should keep Cooper in the pass game in check, but Alabama will run the ball well enough to keep the score in their favor. I would bet on Ole Miss to cover with the spread being -7.
Crimson Tide 27-24
Auburn VS LSU
LSU has to win out to keep themselves in the hunt for the Playoff. The loss to Miss St hurt them bad, but they do have a Schedule left in their favor. They get the Alabama schools and Ole Miss at home. Auburn are some peoples favorite right now, coming off the close loss in last years title game and a QB that is a Heisman hopeful. They really have not played anyone real yet, Kansas St is decent, but not title contenders. I do not think they are as good as last year, and last year they had fate on their side. Auburn will lose at least 2 of their next 6, I could actually see them losing 4. This one included. LSU is not a playoff team and though they could win this one they won't, but being a 7.5 underdog, I would bet them for a backdoor cover.
Aubun 31-27
Oklahoma VS TCU
Oklahoma is my biggest shoe in for the playoff. TCU is the only ranked team they go on the road to play, and TCU has not played anyone real yet, so who knows what they are. I do know they are not title contenders though. That being said, the Big 12 will come down to the Baylor VS OK game, but that's later. This current game is a match up of top 25 unbeaten teams though, so worth mentioning.
Sooners win pretty easy 38-21
Stanford VS Notre Dame
Is Notre Dame for real this year??? I say yes, they are better than two years ago when they got creamed in the title game. They are deeper and will not be pounded into submission like they did then. This is one of only 3 ranked teams they will play and I am not sure USC will be when they play. That being said, If the Irish can win this the game, then the one in two weeks VS Florida State will be a playoff game. Stanford's lose to USC puts them in win out for playoff situation, but if they do win out, I do think it would put them into the playoffs. That being said they will not do it this year. QB athleticism is the key in this game and that edge goes to ND.
Irish 24-20
Oregon VS Arizona
Both teams are 4-0 but only the Ducks have real title hopes. Their schedule actually plays out in which their next 5 games will determine their playoff shot. UCLA and then Stanford 3 weeks later. After disposing of the wannabe Cats this week those two games will be only thing in the way to an unbeaten season. Hopefully the are not looking to next week VS the Bruins and forget to play this week.
Ducks win but Cats cover the 24 point spread. 51-31
Nebraska VS Michigan St
These are the only two teams in Big 10 who have a shot at the playoff. Wisconsin maybe, but they would need to win out and hope both the for both the Huskers and Spartens to lose after this weeks match up. But the winner of this game will control their own destiny. Whoever wins, must win out though and win conference title game, then playoff bound. I actually have not seen Nebraska play this year and really do not know them. That being said, they are on road and Vegas has them as 7 point dogs.
Spartens win 31-27
UCLA VS Utah
Have to throw this game in there. UCLA is for real. and this conference is is right behind the SEC in power. UCLA has Oregon up after this, so again hopefully they are not looking ahead. Utah is just the unranked team to come into Pasadena and ruin the season. That being said it will not happen.
Bruins win and cover the 13, 42-20
In other games. BYU could go undefeated this year and throw a huge wrench into a BIG 5 schools hopes for a playoff appearance. They will win. Baylor crushes TX. Maryland upsets Ohio state in my upset special.
If I do not suck with these predictions maybe will do it again.
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